adas技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)途徑

By Sonia Aggarwal, Mike O’Boyle, and Amol Phadke

通過(guò) 索尼婭AGGARWAL ， 邁克·奧博伊爾 和 阿莫爾Phadke

150 million Americans regularly breathe unhealthy, polluted air. But recently announced targets to achieve 100 percent clean power by the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis and Joe Biden’s presidential campaign would eliminate all air pollution from power plants.

1.5億美國(guó)人定期呼吸不健康，被污染的空氣 。 但是最近由眾議院氣候危機(jī)特別委員會(huì)宣布的實(shí)現(xiàn)100％清潔能源的目標(biāo)以及喬·拜登的總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選活動(dòng)將消除發(fā)電廠的所有空氣污染。

The public health benefits of realizing 100 percent zero carbon electricity by 2035 would be enormous. New analysis from Energy Innovation’s Energy Policy Simulator shows that reaching 100 percent by 2035 would avoid around 16,000 premature deaths in that year, as well as 425,000 asthma attacks, 19,000 heart attacks, and more, as shown in the table below. Moreover, avoiding all these negative health impacts creates massive economic productivity gains — getting to 100 percent in 2035 would avoid losing about 1.7 million workdays to poor health.

到2035年實(shí)現(xiàn)100％零碳電力的公共健康利益將是巨大的。 Energy Innovation的Energy Policy Simulator的新分析表明， 到2035年，這100％的比例將避免當(dāng)年避免約16,000例過(guò)早死亡，并避免425,000例哮喘發(fā)作，19,000例心臟病發(fā)作，如下表所示。 此外，避免所有這些不利的健康影響會(huì)帶來(lái)巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)力提高，到2035年達(dá)到100％可以避免因健康狀況不佳而損失大約170萬(wàn)個(gè)工作日。

Beyond improving health, getting to 100 percent zero carbon electricity would also be a boon for the climate, eliminating more than a quarter of America’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2035. Zero carbon electricity can also enable further emissions reductions from transport, buildings, and industry via electric vehicles, efficient electric appliances, and electric industrial processes. Moreover, successfully decarbonizing our electricity sector would provide spillover benefits beyond our borders — in the form of technology available at lower costs to help reduce GHG emissions in other countries, as well as a clear signal to the world that U.S. is serious about addressing climate change.

除了改善健康狀況外，達(dá)到100％的零碳電力也將為氣候帶來(lái)福音，到2035年消除超過(guò)美國(guó)四分之一的溫室氣體(GHG)排放。零碳電力還可以進(jìn)一步減少交通，建筑，以及通過(guò)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)，高效電器和電氣工業(yè)流程進(jìn)行的工業(yè)。 此外，成功地使我們的電力部門(mén)脫碳將以較低的成本提供技術(shù)形式，以幫助減少其他國(guó)家的溫室氣體排放，并向世界發(fā)出明確的信號(hào)，美國(guó)正認(rèn)真對(duì)待應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化，這將為我們提供超越國(guó)界的溢出效益。 。

All these social benefits — health and climate — really add up. The avoided climate damages between 2020 and 2035 total about $500 billion, using the social cost of carbon developed under the Obama administration. Economists would value the avoided health impacts over the same period around $690 billion, so the combined health and climate benefits of achieving 100 percent zero carbon electricity reach about $1.2 trillion by 2035 (assuming a 3 percent discount rate).

所有這些社會(huì)福利-健康和氣候-確實(shí)加起來(lái)。 2020年至2035年期間，避免的氣候損失總計(jì)約5,000億美元，其中使用了奧巴馬政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的碳排放社會(huì)成本。 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們估計(jì)，同期避免的健康影響約為6900億美元，因此，到2035年，實(shí)現(xiàn)100％零碳電力所帶來(lái)的健康和氣候效益的總和將達(dá)到約1.2萬(wàn)億美元(假設(shè)貼現(xiàn)率為3％)。

If these public health and climate benefits were not reason enough to decarbonize the electricity system, getting onto this path drives investment, supporting at least 500,000 healthy and safe new jobs just when our economy could really use them in the current situation of massive unemployment.

如果這些公共健康和氣候效益不足以使電力系統(tǒng)脫碳，那么走上這條路就可以推動(dòng)投資，至少在當(dāng)前失業(yè)率高企的情況下，我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)才能真正利用這些就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，至少支持500,000個(gè)健康安全的新工作。

Given these overwhelming benefits, the critical outstanding question is whether all this will be affordable for American electricity consumers, and the answer is thankfully “yes!”

鑒于這些壓倒性的好處，一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的懸而未決的問(wèn)題是，這一切對(duì)于美國(guó)的電力消費(fèi)者而言是否可以負(fù)擔(dān)得起，答案是“可以！”

The 2035 Report, a recent study by researchers from the University of California-Berkeley, confirms the U.S. could get 90 percent of its electricity from zero carbon sources by 2035. Detailed grid modeling underlying the study shows electricity demand being met reliably in every hour between now and 2035 under a variety of weather scenarios. What’s more, ever-cheaper wind, solar, and batteries enable us to reach 90 clean electricity while reducing wholesale electricity costs 10 percent from today’s levels.

加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的研究人員最近進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)研究《 2035年報(bào)告》證實(shí)，到2035年 ，美國(guó)可以從零碳源中獲取90％的電力。該研究所依據(jù)的詳細(xì)網(wǎng)格模型顯示，在此期間的每一小時(shí)中，可靠地滿足了電力需求現(xiàn)在和2035年在各種天氣情況下。 而且，更便宜的風(fēng)能，太陽(yáng)能和電池使我們能夠達(dá)到90股清潔電力，同時(shí)將批發(fā)電力成本從如今的水平降低了10％。

Compared with other studies of its kind, the 2035 Report focused on how affordable it would be to get most of the way there on decarbonizing the electricity sector, much faster than conventional wisdom has typically suggested. And most of the public health and economic benefits come from reaching 90 percent, so it’s a no-regrets path to start down now.

與同類(lèi)研究相比，《 2035年報(bào)告》側(cè)重于以大多數(shù)方式實(shí)現(xiàn)電力行業(yè)脫碳的負(fù)擔(dān)能力，這比傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)通常所建議的要快得多。 而且大多數(shù)公共健康和經(jīng)濟(jì)收益來(lái)自達(dá)到90％的水平，因此從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始這是不容小reg的道路。

But of course, when we talk about 90 percent clean by 2035, the next questions become: What about that last 10 percent, especially considering recently announced policy goals calling for 100 percent? How would we build on 90 percent to get to 100 percent clean? What would the system look like, and how quickly could we realistically achieve 100 percent? Could we even do it by 2035 without breaking the bank, or the electric grid for that matter?

但是，當(dāng)然，當(dāng)我們談?wù)摰?035年達(dá)到90％的清潔度時(shí)，接下來(lái)的問(wèn)題就變成了：那最后的10％呢？尤其是考慮到最近宣布的政策目標(biāo)要求100％清潔？ 我們將如何在90％的基礎(chǔ)上獲得100％的清潔度？ 該系統(tǒng)將是什么樣子，而實(shí)際上要多快才能達(dá)到100％？ 我們能在2035年之前做到這一點(diǎn)而又不破壞資金或電網(wǎng)嗎？

Many academics, researchers, and consultants have explored questions about how to decarbonize the last 10 percent of the electricity system. Unlike the first 90 percent, which can be achieved with well-known and commercially proven technologies, the last 10 percent raises serious questions about how to best match clean electricity supply with demand, especially during multi-week periods of low wind and sun, or when seasonal demand (for heat or air conditioning, for example) does not match regional clean energy availability. And if the imperative is reducing overall pollution and climate impacts, there are cheaper and easier sources for the same reductions — from our vehicles or buildings, for example.

許多學(xué)者，研究人員和顧問(wèn)都探討了有關(guān)如何使電力系統(tǒng)的最后10％脫碳的問(wèn)題。 與前90％可以通過(guò)眾所周知且經(jīng)過(guò)商業(yè)驗(yàn)證的技術(shù)來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)的方法不同，后10％提出了有關(guān)如何使清潔電力供應(yīng)與需求最佳匹配的嚴(yán)峻問(wèn)題，尤其是在幾周的低風(fēng)和日照期間，或者當(dāng)季節(jié)性需求(例如供熱或空調(diào))與區(qū)域清潔能源供應(yīng)不匹配時(shí)。 而且如果必須要減少總體污染和氣候影響，那么有同樣便宜的更便宜，更容易獲得的資源，例如我們的車(chē)輛或建筑物。

But to explore whether 100 percent zero carbon electricity is possible by 2035, let’s start with a couple stats about the first 90 percent. First, the 2035 Report shows that developers would need to install solar and wind at double the historical-best rate throughout the 2020s, and triple the historical-best rate in the 2030s. This increased pace will be challenging, but certainly reasonable. So reasonable, in fact, that there is likely some room to go even faster if the policy environment is right.

但是，要探討到2035年是否有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)100％的零碳電力，讓我們從前90％的一些統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)開(kāi)始。 首先，《 2035年報(bào)告》顯示，開(kāi)發(fā)商將需要在整個(gè)2020年代將太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能的安裝價(jià)格提高到歷史最高水平的兩倍，并在2030年代將其安裝到歷史最高水平。 增長(zhǎng)的步伐將具有挑戰(zhàn)性，但肯定是合理的。 實(shí)際上，如此合理，以至于如果政策環(huán)境合適的話，還有可能還有更快的發(fā)展空間 。

Second, the 2035 Report findings indicate it is possible to decrease wholesale electricity rates by approximately 10 percent from today’s levels even as the system reaches 90 percent zero carbon. This creates a reasonable budget to get rid of the last ~200 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions while keeping wholesale costs similar to today’s levels.

其次，《 2035年報(bào)告》的調(diào)查結(jié)果表明，即使系統(tǒng)達(dá)到零碳排放量的90％，也有可能將批發(fā)電價(jià)從目前的水平降低大約10％。 這將產(chǎn)生合理的預(yù)算，以消除最后的約2億噸二氧化碳(CO2)排放，同時(shí)保持批發(fā)成本與當(dāng)今水平相當(dāng)。

An illustrative analysis by the University of California-Berkeley and Energy Innovation team indicates America may be able to reach a zero-carbon electricity system without meaningfully raising wholesale electricity rates from today’s levels with a combination of technologies not yet commercialized but currently on the horizon:

加利福尼亞大學(xué)伯克利分校和能源創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)說(shuō)明性分析表明，美國(guó)可能可以實(shí)現(xiàn)零碳電力系統(tǒng)，而無(wú)需通過(guò)將尚未商業(yè)化但目前正在醞釀的技術(shù)相結(jié)合來(lái)將批發(fā)電價(jià)從當(dāng)今水平顯著提高：

• Using hydrogen produced by green electricity in gas turbines retrofitted to burn pure hydrogen
  在改造后的燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)中使用綠色電力產(chǎn)生的氫氣燃燒純氫氣
• Using hydrogen produced by green electricity in in fuel cells
  在燃料電池中使用綠色電力產(chǎn)生的氫氣
• Burning synthetic methane or biogas in existing gas plants
  在現(xiàn)有的煤氣廠中燃燒合成甲烷或沼氣
• Capturing and sequestering CO2 from existing gas plants
  從現(xiàn)有的煤氣廠中捕獲和封存二氧化碳
• Direct air capture of CO2 from ambient air
  直接從周?chē)諝庵胁东@二氧化碳

Green hydrogen is already capturing the attention of large utilities that are serious about decarbonization such as Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) and NextEra Energy. LADWP’s latest planned 840 megawatt (MW) natural gas plant will run on 30 percent hydrogen on day one of its operation beginning in 2025, with plans to run it on 100 percent hydrogen by 2045. NextEra has proposed a $65 million pilot in Florida that will use a 20 MW electrolyzer to produce 100 percent green hydrogen from solar power, and blend it into another existing gas plant.

綠氫已經(jīng)引起了重視脫碳的大型公用事業(yè)公司的關(guān)注，例如洛杉磯水電局(LADWP)和NextEra Energy。 LADWP最新計(jì)劃的840兆瓦(MW)天然氣電廠將從 2025年開(kāi)始運(yùn)營(yíng)的第一天就以30％的氫氣運(yùn)行，并計(jì)劃到2045年以100％的氫氣運(yùn)行。NextEra 建議在佛羅里達(dá)州進(jìn)行6500萬(wàn)美元的試點(diǎn) ，使用20兆瓦的電解槽從太陽(yáng)能中產(chǎn)生100％的綠色氫氣，然后將其混合到另一個(gè)現(xiàn)有的天然氣工廠中。

Meanwhile, Europe’s latest hydrogen strategy is calling for 6 gigawatts (GW) of electrolyzers by 2024, scaling to 40 GW by 2030. Given that the continent has less than 1 GW of electrolyzers today, this will require a massive scale-up in a relatively short timeframe. This is worth watching, and if successful, has a real chance of helping to bring down costs of electrolysis in the U.S.

同時(shí)，歐洲最新的氫氣戰(zhàn)略要求到2024年將達(dá)到6吉瓦(GW)的電解槽 ，到2030年將達(dá)到40 GW。鑒于該大陸目前的電解槽不足1 GW，這將需要在相對(duì)規(guī)模的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行大規(guī)模擴(kuò)大時(shí)間短。 這值得一看，如果成功的話，它確實(shí)有機(jī)會(huì)幫助降低美國(guó)的電解成本

Using conservative cost estimates for hydrogen retrofits and green hydrogen costs from electrolyzers (a relatively mature — but still relatively expensive — technology), we find that retrofitting all the remaining gas plants in the 2035 Report to burn 100 percent green hydrogen would cost somewhere between 11.7–14.8 cents per kilowatt-hour (cents/kWh). Combined with the costs of the first 90 percent zero carbon electricity, this pathway would result in overall wholesale electricity rates around 5.3–5.6 cents/kWh in 2035, which is quite similar to today’s average rate of 5.2 cents/kWh.

使用保守的氫氣改造成本估算和電解器產(chǎn)生的綠色氫氣成本(一種相對(duì)成熟但仍然相對(duì)昂貴的技術(shù))，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，將2035年報(bào)告中所有剩余的天然氣工廠改造為燃燒100％的綠色氫氣將花費(fèi)大約11.7歐元每千瓦時(shí)–14.8美分(美分/ kWh)。 結(jié)合最初90％的零碳電力的成本，這種途徑將導(dǎo)致2035年的整體批發(fā)電價(jià)約為5.3-5.6美分/千瓦時(shí)，與今天的平均電價(jià)5.2美分/千瓦時(shí)非常相似。

Another pathway for green hydrogen in the electric power sector would be as storage via fuel cells. Producing the last 10 percent of zero carbon electricity beyond the 90 percent zero carbon system modeled in the 2035 Report would result in electricity rates in the range of 8.5–14.3 cents/kWh, resulting in overall wholesale electricity rates ranging from 5–5.6 cents/kWh in 2035, which is right in the range of today’s average rate.

電力部門(mén)中綠色氫的另一條途徑是通過(guò)燃料電池進(jìn)行存儲(chǔ)。 超出2035年報(bào)告中模型的90％零碳系統(tǒng)生產(chǎn)最后的10％零碳電價(jià)，將導(dǎo)致電價(jià)介于8.5–14.3美分/千瓦時(shí)之間，導(dǎo)致整體批發(fā)電價(jià)介于5–5.6美分/ 2035年的千瓦時(shí)，正好在今天的平均費(fèi)率范圍內(nèi)。

Green synthetic methane relies on chemical processes to convert green hydrogen into methane to be burned in existing gas power plants. This zero-carbon fuel source has the advantage of being directly usable in existing power plants, however it requires additional energy to convert electrolyzed hydrogen into methane, increasing input fuel costs relative to hydrogen. Blending synthetic methane with biomethane, captured from landfills or dairy farms, could reduce these input costs, though biomethane sources are relatively limited. At the same time, transporting green synthetic methane (a potent greenhouse gas in itself) using existing natural gas pipeline infrastructure could still result in significant leakage, offsetting the emissions benefits.

綠色合成甲烷依靠化學(xué)過(guò)程將綠色氫轉(zhuǎn)化為甲烷，然后在現(xiàn)有的燃?xì)獍l(fā)電廠中燃燒。 這種零碳燃料源具有可直接在現(xiàn)有發(fā)電廠中使用的優(yōu)勢(shì)，但是它需要額外的能量才能將電解氫轉(zhuǎn)化為甲烷，從而增加了相對(duì)于氫的輸入燃料成本。 盡管生物甲烷源相對(duì)有限，但將合成甲烷與從垃圾填埋場(chǎng)或奶牛場(chǎng)捕獲的生物甲烷混合可以降低這些投入成本。 同時(shí)，使用現(xiàn)有的天然氣管道基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施運(yùn)輸綠色合成甲烷(本身就是有效的溫室氣體)仍可能導(dǎo)致大量泄漏，從而抵消了排放的好處。

Using conservative cost estimates for green methane, we find burning 100 percent green methane in the remaining gas fleet from the 2035 Report would cost about 12.6–14.7 cents/kWh, resulting in overall wholesale electricity rates around 5.4–5.6 cents/kWh in 2035, which is as again similar to today’s average rate.

根據(jù)保守的綠色甲烷成本估算，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，《 2035年報(bào)告 》中剩余燃?xì)庵?00％燃燒綠色甲烷的成本約為12.6-14.7美分/千瓦時(shí)，導(dǎo)致2035年整體批發(fā)電價(jià)約為5.4-5.6美分/千瓦時(shí)，這再次類(lèi)似于今天的平均匯率。

Carbon capture and sequestration has been piloted in the U.S. The Petra Nova power plant project in Texas retrofitted an existing coal-fired power plant to capture 90 percent of its emissions. The captured CO2 is compressed, dried, and transported to the West Ranch Oil Field in Jackson County, Texas, then pumped underground to boost oil production in a process called “enhanced oil recovery.” However, it is important to note Petra Nova was recently mothballed because low oil prices no longer justify purchasing the captured CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. The whole carbon capture, transport, and sequestration process is still relatively expensive, and only economically justified as a pilot when used for oil recovery at relatively high oil prices.

碳捕集與封存已在美國(guó)進(jìn)行了試點(diǎn)。德克薩斯州的Petra Nova電廠項(xiàng)目改造了現(xiàn)有的燃煤電廠，以捕集其90％的排放。 捕獲的二氧化碳經(jīng)過(guò)壓縮，干燥并輸送到德克薩斯州杰克遜縣的西牧場(chǎng)油田，然后通過(guò)稱(chēng)為“強(qiáng)化采油”的過(guò)程泵入地下以提高石油產(chǎn)量。 但是，重要的是要注意，Petra Nova最近被封存，因?yàn)榈陀蛢r(jià)不再有理由購(gòu)買(mǎi)捕獲的二氧化碳以提高采油率。 整個(gè)碳捕獲，運(yùn)輸和封存過(guò)程仍然相對(duì)昂貴，并且只有在以較高油價(jià)用于石油采收時(shí)才在經(jīng)濟(jì)上作為試點(diǎn)是合理的。

Using conservative cost estimates for retrofitting existing gas plants with carbon capture technology, and accounting for transportation and sequestration costs, we find capturing 90 percent of carbon emissions from the remaining gas fleet in the 2035 Report would cost about 11.4 cents/kWh, resulting in overall wholesale power costs around 5.3 cents/kWh in 2035, which is about the same as today’s average wholesale rate. Note this would leave about 20 million tonnes of electric power sector GHG emissions, which would need to be offset in other ways — perhaps via direct air capture, as described next.

使用保守的成本估算來(lái)利用碳捕獲技術(shù)改造現(xiàn)有的天然氣工廠，并考慮運(yùn)輸和封存成本，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在2035年報(bào)告中捕獲剩余天然氣車(chē)隊(duì)90％的碳排放將花費(fèi)約11.4美分/ kWh，因此總體上2035年，批發(fā)電力成本約為5.3美分/千瓦時(shí)，與今天的平均批發(fā)價(jià)格相同。 請(qǐng)注意，這將留下約2000萬(wàn)噸的電力部門(mén)溫室氣體排放量，這需要以其他方式進(jìn)行補(bǔ)償-可能通過(guò)直接空氣捕獲來(lái)彌補(bǔ)，如下所述。

Direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 is a nascent technology with potential to scale and see cost reductions over time. A recent techno-economic assessment of DAC found that demonstration projects could capture CO2 at costs around $350/ton today. The same study (and projections by company Carbon Engineering) found costs could drop below $200/ton with significant commercialization. Using waste heat could further reduce costs.

二氧化碳的直接空氣捕獲(DAC)是一項(xiàng)新興技術(shù)，具有隨著時(shí)間推移而擴(kuò)大規(guī)模并降低成本的潛力。 DAC的最新技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)估發(fā)現(xiàn)，示范項(xiàng)目現(xiàn)在可以以約350美元/噸的成本捕獲CO2。 同一項(xiàng)研究(以及Carbon Engineering公司的預(yù)測(cè) )發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨著大量的商業(yè)化生產(chǎn)，成本可能降至200美元/噸以下。 使用廢熱可以進(jìn)一步降低成本。

DAC is a particularly flexible option to offset the final electric sector emissions because it does not require co-location with any generator, and could also provide grid benefits by operating as a flexible source of electricity demand, running when “excess” zero carbon electricity is being generated. As such, DAC could complement any other pathway to 100 percent, and provides a de facto cost ceiling for reaching net zero emissions for the electricity system.

DAC是一種抵消最終電力部門(mén)排放的特別靈活的選擇，因?yàn)樗恍枰c任何發(fā)電機(jī)并置，并且還可以通過(guò)作為靈活的電力需求源(在“零”零碳電力是正在生成。 因此，DAC可以將任何其他途徑補(bǔ)充到100％，并為達(dá)到電力系統(tǒng)的凈零排放量提供了事實(shí)上的成本上限。

Using best available cost estimates for capturing the approximately 200 million tonnes of CO2 emitted by the remaining gas fleet in the 2035 Report, and accounting for transportation and sequestration costs, we find using DAC for offsets would imply an equivalent “cost of generation” for the last 10 percent of between 11–19 cents/kWh.

根據(jù)2035年報(bào)告中使用的最佳成本估算來(lái)捕獲剩余天然氣車(chē)隊(duì)排放的大約2億噸CO2，并考慮運(yùn)輸和封存成本，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)使用DAC來(lái)抵消將意味著碳當(dāng)量的“發(fā)電成本”相當(dāng)。在11-19美分/千瓦時(shí)之間的最后10％。

Where exactly this option lands in this range depends on whether DAC is deployed at any meaningful scale in the 2020s, and whether that deployment results in cost reductions over time. These estimates would put total average wholesale power costs for 100 percent net zero electricity using DAC for the last 10 percent somewhere between 5.2–6 cents/kWh in 2035, which is as much as 15 percent higher than today’s average wholesale rate.

該選項(xiàng)在此范圍內(nèi)的確切位置取決于DAC是否在2020年代以任何有意義的規(guī)模部署，以及該部署是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致成本隨時(shí)間降低。 這些估算值將得出2035年使用DAC的最后10％的總平均批發(fā)電力成本為100％凈零電，介于5.2-6美分/千瓦時(shí)之間，比今天的平均批發(fā)價(jià)格高出15％。

In sum…

總共…

It’s true that eliminating the last 10 percent of electricity system emissions is more expensive than the first 90 percent, and the priority should remain on accelerating clean energy build-out now to get on either pathway. But summiting the 100 percent mountain is likely not as hard as pessimists would have us believe, especially since it is possible to deliver the first 90 percent zero carbon system, keeping the grid in balance in every hour, while reducing power costs 10 percent from today’s levels.

的確，消除電力系統(tǒng)的最后10％的排放比開(kāi)始的90％的排放更昂貴，現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該優(yōu)先考慮加快清潔能源的建設(shè)，以走上任何一條道路。 但是登頂100％的山峰并不像悲觀主義者所想象的那么難，特別是因?yàn)橛锌赡芴峁┑谝粋€(gè)90％的零碳系統(tǒng)，使每小時(shí)的電網(wǎng)保持平衡，同時(shí)將電力成本從今天的水平降低10％。水平。

At least four promising technology pathways exist today to reach 100 percent clean electricity by 2035 without meaningfully raising wholesale costs from today’s levels, and a fifth might raise them 15 percent. Combining these pathways, along with further expected cost declines from solar, wind, and storage, as well as more potential contribution from demand-side flexibility, we are optimistic these cost estimates could be bested by America’s world-class innovators. Add in significant federal research and development funding, and further cost reductions and innovation are likely.

如今，至少存在四種有前途的技術(shù)途徑，可以在2035年之前達(dá)到100％的清潔電力，而不會(huì)從目前的水平上顯著提高批發(fā)成本，而第五種可能會(huì)將其提高15％。 結(jié)合這些途徑，再加上太陽(yáng)能，風(fēng)能和儲(chǔ)能的預(yù)期成本進(jìn)一步下降，以及需求方靈活性帶來(lái)的更多潛在貢獻(xiàn)，我們樂(lè)觀地認(rèn)為，這些成本估算可以被美國(guó)的世界級(jí)創(chuàng)新者所超越。 增加大量的聯(lián)邦研究與開(kāi)發(fā)資金，可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步降低成本和進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新。

But a clear and specific policy target is essential to set us on the way. With no time to lose, now is the time for ambitious leadership. A zero-carbon electricity system is achievable and affordable, so what are we waiting for?

但是，明確而具體的政策目標(biāo)對(duì)我們的前進(jìn)至關(guān)重要。 沒(méi)有時(shí)間可以浪費(fèi)了，現(xiàn)在是進(jìn)行雄心勃勃的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的時(shí)候了。 零碳電力系統(tǒng)是可以實(shí)現(xiàn)且負(fù)擔(dān)得起的，那么我們還等什么呢？

Sonia Aggarwal is vice president of Energy Innovation, where she leads the firm’s policy and analytical programs.

Sonia Aggarwal是能源創(chuàng)新部副總裁，負(fù)責(zé)公司的政策和分析計(jì)劃。

Mike O’Boyle is director of electricity policy at Energy Innovation, where he leads the firm’s Power Sector Transformation program.

Mike O'Boyle是能源創(chuàng)新公司電力政策總監(jiān)，他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)該公司的電力行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃。

Amol Phadke is a senior scientist and affiliate at the Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California-Berkeley.

Amol Phadke是加利福尼亞大學(xué)伯克利分校高盛公共政策學(xué)院的高級(jí)科學(xué)家和分支機(jī)構(gòu)。

翻譯自: https://medium.com/@EnergyInnovLLC/pathways-to-reach-a-100-percent-clean-electricity-future-delivering-enormous-health-and-job-21c81ccf9037

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