2018年股票市場的喜與悲 (2)

Others?will?have?suffered,?too.?The?declines?in?stocks?imply?a?smaller?pension?pot?for?thoseabout?to?retire.

其他人也將遭遇不幸。股票的衰退暗示著給即將退休者準備的養老金存罐變得更小。 Wherever?investment?income?is?needed?to?meet?current?expenses,?belts?must?be?tightened. 若需要用投資收益滿足日常費用，就必須勒緊褲腰帶。 Yet?those?who?are?still?building?up?their?wealth?will?benefit?from?lower?asset?prices.?Takehousing,?for?instance. 但那些仍在累積財富的人將從更低的資產價格中獲益。以住房為例。 A?fall?in?house?prices?hurts?those?who?are?"long"?property,?those?who?own?more?housing?thanthey?will?personally?need?over?their?lifetime. 房價下跌會對那些擁有多套住房的“長”房屋所有者造成傷害。 Call?such?people?"landlords".?But?it?also?helps?those?people—call?them?"tenants"—who?hopeeither?to?buy?a?property?or?to?trade?up?to?a?bigger?one?in?future. 這些人被稱為“房東”。但房價下跌也幫助那些—稱他們為“房客”—想要買房或是想要換一個更大房子的人。 Falling?house?prices?make?it?easier?for?them?to?reach?their?goal. 房價下跌讓他們的目標更容易實現。 A?similar?logic?applies?to?stockmarkets.?Just?as?a?home?is?a?stream?of?future?housing?services,?a?stock?is?a?stream?of?future?dividends. 類似邏輯也適用于股票市場。就像房子是一串未來住房服務一樣，股票也是一串未來股息。 Lower?stock?prices?may?be?bad?for?stockmarket?"landlords",?but?they?are?good?for?stockmarket?"tenants". 更低的股票價格或許對股市“房東”不是件好事，但是對股市“房客”來說卻是件好事。 Warren?Buffett?has?written?that?those?who?plan?to?be?net?buyers?of?stocks?in?the?future?shouldrejoice?when?stocks?fall. 沃倫·巴菲特曾寫到，在股票下跌的時候，那些計劃成為未來股票凈購買者的人應該慶祝。

An?investor?of?this?kind?who?cheers?rising?stock?prices?is?like?"a?commuter?who?rejoices?afterthe?price?of?gas?increases,?simply?because?his?tank?contains?a?day's?supply".

慶祝股價上漲的這類投資者就像是“一位在油氣價格上漲后慶祝的通勤者一樣，因為他的氣箱里裝滿了一天的供應量”。 Fears?of?recession?are?not?the?only?reason?for?falling?stock?prices. 對衰退的恐懼不是股價下跌的唯一原因。 Part?of?the?recent?decline?is?down?to?prospects,?such?as?Brexit?or?growing?protectionism,?thatwill?do?permanent?damage?to?the?global?economy, 近期部分下跌是由于對前景的瞻望，比如脫歐或不斷增長的保護主義，這將對全球經濟、 and?thus?to?company?profits?and?stockmarket?returns.?Yet?even?in?this?regard?there?issomething?to?be?said?for?a?correction?in?asset?prices. 公司利潤以及股市收益造成永久的損傷。但即便在這點上，對資產價格進行修正也是有好處的。 When?excessive?optimism?is?built?into?asset?prices,?wasteful?investment?often?follows. 當對資產價格過于樂觀時，緊隨其后的通常是投資浪費。 Think?of?the?homes?built?in?out-of-the-way?places?in?America,?Spain?and?Ireland?to?satisfyspeculative?demand?during?the?global?housing?boom?of?the?noughties. 想想在21世紀的頭10年中，全球房屋市場的繁榮，美國、西班牙和愛爾蘭為了滿足投機需求而在偏遠地區建造的那些房屋。 Investors,?like?those?who?use?ecstasy?or?alcohol,?face?a?choice.?They?can?feel?good?now?orlater. 投資者，比如那些服用搖頭丸或酒精的人，面臨一項選擇。他們可以現在或晚些時候high起來。 Genuinely?long-term?investors?will?always?choose?later. 長期投資者總會選擇后者。 They?want?to?buy?stocks?as?cheaply?as?possible?and?when?they?get?a?higher?premium?for?owningrisky?assets. 他們想要購買盡可能便宜的股票，并且是在他們為擁有風險資產而獲得更高度保險費之時。 Recessions?are?an?inevitable?part?of?the?risks?investors?face.?As?with?hangovers,?they?feelinterminable.?But?eventually?they?clear. 衰退是投資者所面臨的風險中不可避免的一部分。和宿醉一樣，感覺沒完沒了，但終將會變得清晰。

轉載于:https://www.cnblogs.com/wanghui626/p/10253456.html

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