Withdrawal symptoms?

脫癮癥狀

After the stimulus, the hangover

經濟刺激計劃之后所遺留下來的

Oct 7^th 2010

《經濟學人》2010-10-07

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SOME Americans have always taken the national debt personally. During the 1940 census (according to the late David McCord Wright, an American economist) a housewife was asked if she had a mortgage on her home. "Yes," she replied. "For $40 billion."
????? 有些美國人總是將國家債務當做個人的。在1940年的人口普查中一位家庭主婦被問到她家里是否有按揭貸款時，她回答道,”是的，有400億美元。“。

That figure (about 40% of 1940 GDP) now seems quaint. The federal debt held by the public was $8.9 trillion in August 2010, or about 60% of GDP. Add to that the Treasury debt held by America's public-pension scheme, and the national debt reached $10 trillion back in September 2008. The extra digit obliged the national debt clock near New York's Times Square to move its dollar sign to make room.

?這一數字（約占1940年GDP的40%）現在看上去很巨大。2010年8月公眾所背負的聯邦債務為8.9萬億美元，約占GDP的60%.再加上美國公共退休金方案所背負的國債，整個國家的負債在2008年9月達到了10萬億美元。紐約時代廣場上的國家債務鐘甚至被迫將其美元符號挪走，以便為多出來的數字騰出空間。

Many of today's Americans feel as indignant about the debt as that 1940s housewife did. But they are just as profligate as their government (see chart 4). Their mortgages and other debts also amount to around $13 trillion, almost 120% of their annual disposable income.

今天許多美國人和1940年那個家庭主婦一樣對國家的債務感到憤慨。但實際上他們自己也和他們的政府一樣肆意揮霍。他們的按揭貸款及其他債務也累計達到大約13萬億美元，幾乎是他們年均可支配收入的1.2倍。

The most remarkable thing about that figure, though, is not how big it is, but that it is smaller than it was two years ago. For over 60 years after the second world war, household debt moved in only one direction: upwards. Then, in the second quarter of 2008, it started to fall—not just as a proportion of income, or after allowing for inflation, but in everyday dollars and cents. Between March 1st 2008 and June 30th 2010 households reduced their debts by $473 billion. Businesses and banks joined in later. Although the federal debt displayed on the Times Square clock is ticking remorselessly upwards, the true national debt, including households, banks and firms, is now lower than it was in the first quarter of 2009.
????? 關于這一數字最不可思議的事情并不是它是多么的巨大，而是與兩年前相比它反而減小了。二戰后的60年間，家庭負債都是朝著一個方向前進的：不斷上升。然而，到了2008年的第二季度，它開始下降了---不僅僅是債務與收入的比例下降，或考慮到通貨膨脹后出現下降，而且日常使用的美元與美分也開始貶值。2008年3月1號到2010年6月30號之間，美國家庭累計減少了約4.73萬億美元的債務。企業和銀行隨之加入減少債務的行列。盡管伴隨著時代廣場債務鐘的滴答聲，聯邦負債的數字依然在無情地向上增加著，但包括家庭，銀行和企業的負債在內的國家債務現在已經比2009年第一季度要低許多了。

In 2008-09, for the first time since the 1930s Depression, consumer spending in real terms fell for two years in a row. Households are now saving 6% of their disposable income, compared with just 2.7% in the years before the crisis. Combined with the stockmarket's fitful rallies, this frugality has helped American households rebuild some of the wealth washed away by the recession. Their net worth is now about 490% of their disposable income, compared with just 440% in the worst months of the crisis. As a cushion against a riskier world, American households will probably try to set aside a stash of assets worth some 540-550% of their income, according to Martin Sommer of the IMF and Jirka Slacalek of the European Central Bank. If that figure is right, their balance-sheet repairs are currently only half completed.

?? ? ?在2008到2009年間，自從1930年經濟大蕭條以來，扣除物價因素后的消費支出首次連續兩年出現下降。美國家庭將其可支配收入的6%用于儲蓄，這與危機前僅2.7%形成鮮明的對比。再加上股市間歇性的大盤重整，這一節儉措施幫助美國家庭重新累計起因經濟衰損失掉的財富。他們的凈資產值現在約為其可支配收入的4.9倍，與之相比，在危機最嚴重的數月里只有4.4倍。據IMF的Martin Sommer和歐洲央行的Jirka Slacalek稱，作為避免國家陷入更大危機的緩沖墊，美國家庭可能需要進一步加大儲蓄力度，以便使其凈資產值保持在其收入5.4-5.5倍左右的水平。如果這一數字是正確的，那么他們的資產預算表的修復工作目前還只能說完成了一半。?

This new thrift is not confined to America. Household debt is also falling in Spain. In Britain households saved 6.3% of their disposable income in 2009 (though less in the first half of 2010), compared with 2% in 2008. Nor is the frugality limited to households. In the wake of the financial crisis, companies across the rich world have been piling up cash. Small firms have been unable, and many big firms have been unwilling, to borrow. In Japan and Britain corporate investment fell by about a quarter from peak to trough. The pace of investment has recovered somewhat, but companies are still not rushing to add new factories and machinery when so much of their existing capacity lies idle.?

?? ? ?這種節儉的生活方式不僅局限于美國家庭。西班牙的家庭負債也在下降。在2009年每個英國家庭將其可支配收入的6。3%用于儲蓄（盡管在2010年上半年有所下降），與之相比，這一比例在2008年只有2%。這種節儉之風也不僅僅局限于家庭。在金融危機復蘇之際，發達國家的企業都紛紛積攢現金。小公司無力借錢給別人，而大公司更是不愿意借錢出去。在日本和英國，企業投資從峰值到低谷約下跌了25%。投資的步伐最近有所恢復，但在現有的產能仍然處于閑置的狀態下，企業仍舊沒有意愿去追加新的廠房和機器來擴大生產。?

All told, across the OECD households and businesses are forecast to spend $2.6 trillion less than their incomes this year, the equivalent of 7% of GDP. This follows another huge private-sector surplus, of 7.2%, the year before. In 2007, by contrast, the rich world's households and businesses ran a combined deficit. This astonishing rise in private saving is the main reason why the recession was so deep and the recovery is so muted. After two years of private-sector austerity in the rich countries, the biggest macroeconomic controversy now facing their governments is whether to embrace some austerity of their own.

?? ? ?總之，據OECD稱，家庭和企業預計支出將比其收入要少約2.6萬億美元，這一數字約為GDP的7%。這一情況是在去年私有企業出現巨大的收入盈余（7.2%）之后出現的。與之相比，在2007年，發達國家的家庭和企業都遭遇了虧損。私有儲蓄方面這種令人驚奇的上升是經濟衰退如此嚴重而復蘇又如此無力的主要原因。在發達國家的私有企業中實行了長達2年的緊縮政策后，這些國家的政府所面臨的宏觀經濟方面最大的爭論是是否國家也應該采取一些財政緊縮政策。?

Squirrel it away?
儲存下來

Squirrels save by burying nuts in the ground. In sophisticated economies, people save by amassing financial claims on someone else. Savers therefore need borrowers. In textbook economics households save and banks use those savings to lend to firms. For both households and firms to run a surplus, someone else must run a deficit. That someone else could be a foreign nation. But none of the economies outside the OECD is big enough to absorb the excess private saving of the rich world. China would have to run a current-account deficit of over 40% of GDP to offset a $2.6 trillion surplus. Even if the task were spread across all the Asian countries outside the OECD (of which Japan and South Korea are members), they would have to run deficits of over 25% each.?

?? ? ?松鼠通過把堅果埋在地底來儲藏過冬的食物。在復雜的經濟體中，人們通過放債給其他人的方式來進行儲蓄。因此儲蓄者需要借貸者。在經濟學課本中，家庭是儲蓄的個體，而銀行則將這些儲蓄用來借貸給企業。如果家庭和企業要獲得盈利，那么必須有第三方出現虧損。這個第三方可以是一個外國的國家。但是OECD之外的任何一個國家都還不足夠巨大到能吸收發達世界的過剩的私有儲蓄。中國要抵消2.6萬億美元的貿易順差，就必須遭受超過GDP40%的貿易赤字。即使這一行動在所有的非OECD成員的亞洲國家得到實行，它們也必須遭受超過25%的赤字損失。?

The only other possibility is governments. That is why the rich world's private surpluses have been mirrored by equally vast public deficits. Last year the OECD's governments ran a combined deficit of 7.9% of GDP, and this year it is likely to be only marginally less. Among the big economies, Britain's deficit will be the largest, at 11.5%, with America not far behind. In an accounting sense, these eye-popping deficits are simply the counterpart of private surpluses. In an economic sense, their remarkable increase is less the outcome of government profligacy than private thrift.?

唯一其他的可能性在于政府。這就是為何發達國家出現私有儲蓄盈余的同時，在公共領域卻出現巨大的赤字。去年經合組織的各個國家累積出現了約占GDP7.9%的赤字，今年這一數字會稍微減少一點。在這些發達國家中，英國的赤字將會是最嚴重的，約為11。5%，緊隨其后的是美國。從統計學角度來看，這些令人瞠目結舌的赤字與私有儲蓄盈余是相匹配的。從經濟學角度來看，這些赤字顯著的增長并不是由于政府的肆意揮霍導致的，而是國民的過分節儉所產生的。?

(未完待續。。。）?

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