摘　　要：技術風險是引發費用風險和進度風險的主要因素,因此在航空裝備的研制中需要重點管控和規避。為提供可靠的航空裝備預研項目技術方案的選擇依據,采用改進的TOPSIS方法對五種不同航空裝備預研方案的技術風險進行了定量評估,技術風險評價指標體系包括成熟性、復雜性、先進性、安全性、經濟性、保障性、兼容性和標準化八個指標。利用熵值賦權法求得指標權重,雙基點間的投影距離代替傳統的相對歐式距離對TOPSIS方法進行了改進。實例分析中,通過編程計算對某航空預研項目的五種技術方案進行了定量風險評估,根據風險優屬度確立了較為優化的技術方案。結果表明,該方法較主觀賦權法更為科學、客觀,為航空預研方案的初選提供了可靠參考。Technical risk can lead to cost risk and development risk,so effective measures should be taken to management,control and avoid the technical risk in aviation development project.In order to provide reliable reference for choosing technical scheme in the development of aviation equipment,the ameliorated TOPSIS method was used to quantificationally evaluate the technical risk of five different aviation equipment development projects,and the technical risk appraise index system included eight indexes such as maturity,complexity,advance,safety,economy,support,compatibility and standardization.The entropy weighted method was applied to get the index weight,and projection distance between double base points was used to substitute traditional opposite continental distance to ameliorate the TOPSIS method.In the example analysis,the said model was used to conduct the evaluation of five risk schemes of aviation beforehand project by programming and computation,the excellent risk scheme was radicated.It showed that the ameliorated TOPSIS method was more scientific and in-subjective than subjective weighted method,it provide a new method for the choosing of technical scheme in the development of aviation equipment.

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