Is there a way to predict the outcome of any soccer game with 100% accuracy? The honest and simplest answer is…. no. Regardless of what your fantasy football friends say, there is absolutely no way to be 100% certain, but there is a proven, mathematical formula that gets really, really close! And it’s all thanks to baseball.

有沒有辦法以100％的準(zhǔn)確性預(yù)測任何足球比賽的結(jié)果？ 誠實(shí)和最簡單的答案是……。 沒有。 無論您的夢幻足球朋友怎么說，都絕對不可能百分百地確定，但是有一個(gè)經(jīng)過驗(yàn)證的數(shù)學(xué)公式可以非常緊密地聯(lián)系在一起！ 這全都?xì)w功于棒球。

In the early 2000s, Bill James derived a formula that could calculate the percentage of games a baseball team “should” win by the end of the season. It was coined as the Pythagorean Win Expectation and is still used by sports analysts around the world. In order to avoid boring you with the math, all you need to know is that it uses the relationships between Runs Scored and Runs Allowed by a team to predict how many wins they should have by the end of a season.

在2000年代初期，比爾·詹姆斯(Bill James)得出了一個(gè)公式，該公式可以計(jì)算棒球隊(duì)在本賽季末“應(yīng)該”獲勝的比賽百分比。 它被稱為畢達(dá)哥拉斯式的“勝利期望”，至今仍被世界各地的體育分析人士所采用。 為了避免使您感到厭煩，您需要了解的是，它使用團(tuán)隊(duì)得分和跑步允許的跑步次數(shù)之間的關(guān)系來預(yù)測到賽季結(jié)束前應(yīng)該獲得多少勝利。

Pythagorean Win Expectation Formula from Winston’s Mathletics溫斯頓數(shù)學(xué)的畢達(dá)哥拉斯贏取期望公式

However, baseball and soccer are 2 completely different sports. For instance, baseball is based on a 162 games season where performance is measured by wins and losses. On the other hand, soccer usually revolves around a 38 game season measured by a point system. So, how can this formula predict outcomes for soccer? Well, it can’t. At least not without tweaking it first.

但是，棒球和足球是兩種完全不同的運(yùn)動(dòng)。 例如，棒球以162場比賽賽季為基礎(chǔ)，其中的表現(xiàn)是由勝利和失敗決定的。 另一方面，足球通常圍繞一個(gè)得分系統(tǒng)衡量的38個(gè)賽季進(jìn)行。 那么，這個(gè)公式如何預(yù)測足球的結(jié)果呢？ 好吧，那不可能。 至少并非沒有先對其進(jìn)行調(diào)整。

There are thousands of academic papers online explaining all of the intricate math that goes into the process of deriving this formula and there is no way I could ever understand them. Therefore, for the sake of simplicity, we will take the following magic formula as face value:

在線上有成千上萬的學(xué)術(shù)論文解釋了推導(dǎo)此公式過程中所涉及的所有復(fù)雜數(shù)學(xué)，而且我永遠(yuǎn)無法理解它們。 因此，為簡單起見，我們將以下魔術(shù)公式作為面值：

Derivation from Statsbomb.com源自Statsbomb.com

Does this really work? Yeah, it does a pretty good job! Not only is the math pretty simple, but with some basic Excel knowledge, one is able to do this for all 20 teams in under 20 minutes! I used this myself to predict the outcomes of the last 10 games of the English Premier League and the results were extremely encouraging! Here is how I did it:

這真的有效嗎？ 是的，做得很好！ 數(shù)學(xué)不僅非常簡單，而且具有一些基本的Excel知識，一個(gè)人就能在20分鐘內(nèi)為所有20個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)做到這一點(diǎn)！ 我自己以此來預(yù)測英超聯(lián)賽最近10場比賽的結(jié)果，結(jié)果令人鼓舞！ 這是我的做法：

1- Get Your Data ReadySince we are going to try predict the outcome of week 38 of the Premier League, we need to gather all the relevant data up to week 37. That means Standings, Goals Scored, Goals Against, Wins, Losses, Draws, Points, etc. Thankfully, the Premier League has it all readily on their website for use. All we need to do is a simple Control+C and Control+V into our Excel sheet.

1-準(zhǔn)備好數(shù)據(jù)因?yàn)槲覀円獓L試預(yù)測英超聯(lián)賽第38周的結(jié)果，所以我們需要收集到第37周的所有相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)。這意味著排名，進(jìn)球數(shù)，進(jìn)球數(shù)，勝利，失敗，抽獎(jiǎng)，積分等。值得慶幸的是，英超聯(lián)賽已經(jīng)可以在其網(wǎng)站上方便地使用它們。 我們需要做的就是在Excel工作表中添加一個(gè)簡單的Control + C和Control + V。

Source:Author出處：作者

2.- Calculate the Percentage of Points Predicted per TeamHere is where we get to use our magic formula! After you input it into excel on a separate column and apply, you will now have a percentage of points predicted for every team at the end of the season. All we have to do is translate it into actual points. However, the next steps are not as simple and involve some wacky assumptions.

2.-計(jì)算每個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)測的得分百分比這是我們使用魔術(shù)公式的地方！ 在將其輸入到excel的單獨(dú)列中并應(yīng)用后，您現(xiàn)在將在本賽季末為每個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)預(yù)測百分比。 我們要做的就是將其轉(zhuǎn)換為實(shí)際要點(diǎn)。 但是，下一步并不那么簡單，并且涉及一些古怪的假設(shè)。

3.- How Many Possible Points Can a Team Get?In theory, if a team today won all 38 games, they would have a total of 114 points (3 points per win). However, due to the way this formula was derived, we need to assume that a win is only worth 2 points (Fun fact: This was the official measurement for wins up to 1994). Therefore, we operate under the assumption that if a team won all 38 games, they would only get 76 points.

3.-一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)可以得到多少分？ 從理論上講，如果今天一支球隊(duì)贏得了全部38場比賽，他們將總共獲得114分(每次勝利3分)。 但是，由于該公式的推導(dǎo)方式，我們需要假設(shè)一場勝利僅值2分(有趣的事實(shí)：這是1994年之前勝利的官方衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn))。 因此，我們假設(shè)一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)如果贏得了全部38場比賽，他們只會(huì)得到76分。

4.- Calculate the Final Predicted PointsSince we have our percentage of points predicted per team and the total points a team could get, we multiply them in order to get the predicted points for every team at the end of the season. However, you will notice these numbers are extremely low. That is because we are still operating under the 2 point system, which means we need to adjust it back to the 3 point system we are familiar with.

4.-計(jì)算最終的預(yù)測點(diǎn)數(shù)由于我們擁有每個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)的預(yù)測點(diǎn)數(shù)百分比和一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)可以獲得的總點(diǎn)數(shù)，因此我們將它們相乘，以便在賽季結(jié)束時(shí)獲得每個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)的預(yù)測點(diǎn)數(shù)。 但是，您會(huì)注意到這些數(shù)字非常低。 那是因?yàn)槲覀內(nèi)栽?點(diǎn)制下運(yùn)行，這意味著我們需要將其調(diào)整回我們熟悉的3點(diǎn)制。

Source: Author資料來源：作者

5.- Getting Our Adjusted Predicted PointsThis step is not as complicated as it sounds. All we need to do here is take the current, real world points for every team and convert them into our 2 point system. All you need to do here is take the team’s real world current points and subtract the number of wins that team has. Another more intuitive way to do this is by multiplying the number of wins by 2 and adding the number of draws the team has.

5.-獲得調(diào)整后的預(yù)測點(diǎn)此步驟并不像聽起來那樣復(fù)雜。 我們要做的就是為每個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)獲取當(dāng)前的真實(shí)積分，并將其轉(zhuǎn)換為我們的2分制。 您需要做的就是獲取團(tuán)隊(duì)的實(shí)際世界點(diǎn)數(shù)，然后減去團(tuán)隊(duì)的獲勝次數(shù)。 另一種更直觀的方法是將獲勝次數(shù)乘以2，再加上團(tuán)隊(duì)的平局次數(shù)。

6.- Converting Into the 3 Point SystemOnce again, it is time to trust blindly in the math. While its derivation is not that complicated, this formula allows us to adjust the predicted points from the previous step. Now we get to see what the final expected points for every team at the end of the season and compare them to the points they currently have.

6.-轉(zhuǎn)換為3點(diǎn)系統(tǒng)再次是時(shí)候該盲目地信任數(shù)學(xué)了。 盡管推導(dǎo)的過程并不復(fù)雜，但此公式使我們可以調(diào)整上一步的預(yù)測點(diǎn)。 現(xiàn)在我們來看看每個(gè)球隊(duì)在賽季結(jié)束時(shí)的最終預(yù)期得分，并將其與當(dāng)前得分進(jìn)行比較。

Derived from Statsbomb.com源自Statsbomb.com

As you can see, our predictions differ from the actual current points by only 1 or 2 points, and some are even spot on! How you choose to interpret the information is entirely up to you.

正如您所看到的，我們的預(yù)測與實(shí)際當(dāng)前點(diǎn)僅相差1或2個(gè)點(diǎn)，有些甚至還存在！ 您如何選擇解釋信息完全取決于您。

One of the many things I did with this data was to calculate the difference between actual points and expected points and see if a team was performing better or worse than expected. This way, I could see which teams were underperforming and were expected to either win or tie their next games.

我使用此數(shù)據(jù)所做的許多事情之一是計(jì)算實(shí)際得分與預(yù)期得分之間的差異，并查看團(tuán)隊(duì)的表現(xiàn)是否好于或低于預(yù)期。 這樣，我可以看到哪些球隊(duì)表現(xiàn)不佳，并有望贏得或打敗下一局。

By doing this (and using other metrics and some subjectivity), I was able to predict the outcome of 7 out of the last 10 games of the season, including Brighton’s upset and first win after losing 4 in a row, and the 1–1 tie between Tottenham and Crystal Palace!

通過這樣做(并使用其他指標(biāo)和某種主觀性)，我能夠預(yù)測本賽季最后10場比賽中的7場比賽的結(jié)果，包括布萊頓的失意和連續(xù)輸?shù)?場后的首場勝利，以及1-1熱刺和水晶宮之間的紐帶！

Source: Author資料來源：作者

翻譯自: https://medium.com/illumination/how-i-predicted-the-exact-outcome-of-10-premier-league-games-9d97812f605c

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