亚洲国家互联网渗透率_发展中亚洲国家如何回应covid 19
亞洲國家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)滲透率
The COVID-19 pandemic has severely hit various economies across the world, with global impact estimated between USD 6.1 trillion and USD 9.1 trillion, equivalent to a loss of 7.1% to 10.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP).[1] More than one-fifth of the global loss accrues to developing Asian economies, where the impact could cost as much as USD 2 trillion, equal to 8.5% of developing Asia’s GDP. To combat the adverse effects of outbreak-induced economic crises, authorities in the region have designed policy responses to support households, businesses and other sectors.
COVID-19大流行嚴(yán)重打擊了世界各地的各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，對(duì)全球的影響估計(jì)在6.1萬億美元至9.1萬億美元之間，相當(dāng)于損失了全球國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的7.1％至10.5％。 [1]全球損失的五分之一以上來自亞洲發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體，其影響可能造成高達(dá)2萬億美元的損失，相當(dāng)于亞洲發(fā)展中GDP的8.5％。 為了應(yīng)對(duì)由爆發(fā)引起的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的不利影響，該地區(qū)的主管部門已制定了應(yīng)對(duì)政策，以支持家庭，企業(yè)和其他部門。
This article looks at the COVID-19 policy responses in developing Asia and is organized as follows:
本文著眼于亞洲發(fā)展中國家的COVID-19政策回應(yīng)，其組織方式如下：
The data set
數(shù)據(jù)集
Data used in this analysis come from the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) COVID-19 Policy Database, which collects information on economic measures taken and monetary amounts announced or estimated by authorities in developing Asia in response to COVID-19.[2] Policy actions are classified into five types: a) support the normal functioning of money markets; b) encourage private credit creation; c) provide direct long-term lending to nonfinancial sector; d) equity claims on the private sector; and e) provide direct support to income of households and businesses.
該分析中使用的數(shù)據(jù)來自亞洲開發(fā)銀行(ADB)的COVID-19政策數(shù)據(jù)庫，該數(shù)據(jù)庫收集有關(guān)亞洲發(fā)展中國家在應(yīng)對(duì)COVID-19時(shí)所宣布或估計(jì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)措施以及貨幣金額的信息。 [2]政策行動(dòng)分為五類：a)支持貨幣市場(chǎng)的正常運(yùn)作； b)鼓勵(lì)建立私人信貸； c)向非金融部門提供直接長期貸款； d)對(duì)私營部門的股權(quán)索賠； e)為家庭和企業(yè)的收入提供直接支持。
Size and distribution of policy response packages
政策響應(yīng)包的大小和分布
Figure 1. East Asia dominates the region in terms of size of packages. 圖1.就包裹數(shù)量而言，東亞占主導(dǎo)地位。 Image by the author.圖片由作者提供。East Asia has the biggest policy response package amounting to USD 2.8 trillion, more than thrice the combined amount of the rest of the region (Figure 1). Relative to GDP, East Asian countries are also above par against others with packages equivalent to 21.5% of GDP on average.
東亞最大的一攬子政策措施總額達(dá)2.8萬億美元，是該地區(qū)其他地區(qū)總和的三倍多(圖1)。 相對(duì)于國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值，東亞國家也比其他國家高，平均相當(dāng)于國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的21.5％。
The largest stimuli in the region come from countries in East and Southeast Asia, as well as India. China tops the list with USD 2.4 trillion, which is equivalent to almost 90% of the total response in East Asia (Figure 2). India’s package comes next at USD 363 billion, followed by South Korea with USD 235 billion. In terms of share in GDP, Hong Kong’s USD 192 billion-response is massive accounting for more than half of its GDP. Singapore’s response is equivalent to 25.4% of its GDP, while Malaysia 21.5%.
該地區(qū)最大的刺激來自東亞和東南亞國家以及印度。 中國以2.4萬億美元名列榜首，幾乎相當(dāng)于東亞總響應(yīng)的90％(圖2)。 其次是印度，總額為3630億美元，其次是韓國，為2350億美元。 就GDP的份額而言，香港的1,920億美元的援助占了GDP的一半以上。 新加坡的React相當(dāng)于其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的25.4％，而馬來西亞為21.5％。
Figure 2. China’s package most enormous; biggest packages come from East and Southeast Asia, India. Image by the author. 圖2. 中國的一攬子計(jì)劃 最大的包裹來自印度的東亞和東南亞。 圖片由作者提供。There are some clear differences in the magnitude of packages as share in GDP across and even within sub regions (Figure 3). East Asia, for example, has an interquartile range of 14% to 17%, while Central and West Asia has 0.2% to 5%. Within sub regions, the variation is most pronounced for countries in Southeast Asia ranging from 0.04% (Lao PDR) to 25% (Singapore). The Pacific, on the other hand, tend to have less heterogeneity at below or equal to 10% of GDP, with Marshall Islands as an exception. Other outliers include Hong Kong and Taiwan for East Asia and Kazakhstan and Georgia for Central and West Asia.
一攬子計(jì)劃的規(guī)模在次區(qū)域甚至在次區(qū)域之內(nèi)在GDP中所占的比例之間存在明顯差異(圖3)。 例如，東亞的四分位數(shù)范圍為14％至17％，而中亞和西亞的四分位數(shù)范圍為0.2％至5％。 在次區(qū)域內(nèi)，東南亞國家的變化最為明顯，范圍從0.04％(老撾)至25％(新加坡)。 另一方面，太平洋地區(qū)的異質(zhì)性趨向于低于或等于GDP的10％，馬紹爾群島除外。 其他異常值包括東亞的香港和臺(tái)灣以及中亞和西亞的哈薩克斯坦和喬治亞州。
Figure 3. There is sizable variation in the size of packages across and within sub regions. Image by the author.圖3.子區(qū)域內(nèi)和子區(qū)域內(nèi)的包裝尺寸存在很大差異。 圖片由作者提供。Measures to provide direct support to income
為收入提供直接支持的措施
Figure 4. Policy responses are mainly dedicated to providing direct support to income. Image by the author.圖4.政策應(yīng)對(duì)措施主要致力于為收入提供直接支持。 圖片由作者提供。Providing direct support to income of households and businesses appears the most important objective of packages in the region (Figure 4). The whole block dedicated USD 1.9 trillion for measures such as in-kind and cash transfers to low-income households, insurance coverage for medical front liners, and wage support for low-wage workers. In per capita terms, Singapore provides the most generous support to income allotting more than USD 9,000 per person, followed by Hong Kong at more than USD 5,000 per person (Figure 5). In the Philippines, meanwhile, income support amounts to less than a hundred bucks per person.
為家庭和企業(yè)的收入提供直接支持似乎是該地區(qū)一攬子計(jì)劃的最重要目標(biāo)(圖4)。 整個(gè)區(qū)塊共投入1.9萬億美元用于諸如向低收入家庭的實(shí)物和現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)移，醫(yī)療前沿保險(xiǎn)的覆蓋以及對(duì)低薪工人的工資支持等措施。 按人均計(jì)算，新加坡為人均收入超過9,000美元的人提供了最慷慨的支持，其次是香港，人均收入超過5,000美元的人(圖5)。 同時(shí)，在菲律賓，人均收入支持不到一百美元。
Figure 5. Singapore and Hong Kong are the most generous to provide income support. Image by the author.圖5.新加坡和香港是提供收入支持的最慷慨的。 圖片由作者提供。Other measures
其他措施
In addition to providing income support, authorities also put importance on ensuring normal functioning of money markets, encouraging private credit creation, and offering direct long-term lending to households and businesses (Figure 6). Measures to purchase equities in the private sector, on the other hand, play less role in many packages in the region.
除提供收入支持外，當(dāng)局還重視確保貨幣市場(chǎng)的正常運(yùn)作，鼓勵(lì)私人信貸的建立以及向家庭和企業(yè)提供直接長期貸款(圖6)。 另一方面，在私營部門購買股票的措施在該地區(qū)的許多一攬子計(jì)劃中所起的作用較小。
Figure 6. Measures adopted by authorities vary according to its effect on financial systems, incomes and debt. Image by the author.圖6.當(dāng)局采取的措施因其對(duì)金融體系，收入和債務(wù)的影響而異。 圖片由作者提供。All economies in East Asia have dedicated significant budget for measures that provide liquidity support (Figure 7). Hong Kong is notable with almost 70% of its total package accounted for by increasing banking sector’s liquidity, encouraging banks to deploy more flexible liquidity buffers, and easing interbank funding conditions. About one-fifth of China’s policy response is intended to expand lending facilities to aid manufacturers of medical supplies and daily necessities, micro-, small- and medium-sized firms, and workers in the agricultural sector.
東亞所有經(jīng)濟(jì)體都有大量預(yù)算用于提供流動(dòng)性支持的措施(圖7)。 引人注目的是，香港通過提高銀行部門的流動(dòng)性，鼓勵(lì)銀行部署更靈活的流動(dòng)性緩沖，以及減輕銀行間融資條件而占其總投資的70％。 中國約有五分之一的政策React旨在擴(kuò)大貸款設(shè)施，以幫助醫(yī)療用品和日用品的制造商，微型，中小型企業(yè)以及農(nóng)業(yè)部門的工人。
Figure 7. East Asian economies provide liquidity support. Image by the author.圖7.東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)體提供流動(dòng)性支持。 圖片由作者提供。In South Asia, secondary market purchases of securities, interest rate reductions, and loan guarantees account for a sizeable proportion of total packages (Figure 8). The whole package of Nepal, for example, consists of a USD 2 billion refinancing fund to provide subsidized credit for banks willing to lend at a concessional rate to priority sectors including small and medium enterprises (SME). In Sri Lanka, about two-fifths of the package is intended to implement new credit schemes to support lending to construction and other business segments severely hit by the pandemic.
在南亞，二級(jí)市場(chǎng)上購買的證券，利率降低和貸款擔(dān)保占一攬子交易總額的很大一部分(圖8)。 例如，尼泊爾的一攬子計(jì)劃包括一個(gè)20億美元的再融資基金，用于向愿意以優(yōu)惠利率向包括中小企業(yè)在內(nèi)的優(yōu)先部門提供貸款的銀行提供補(bǔ)貼信貸。 在斯里蘭卡，一攬子計(jì)劃中約有五分之二旨在實(shí)施新的信貸計(jì)劃，以支持對(duì)受到大流行嚴(yán)重打擊的建筑和其他業(yè)務(wù)部門的貸款。
Figure 8. Authorities in South Asia encourage private credit creation. Image by the author.圖8.南亞當(dāng)局鼓勵(lì)建立私人信貸。 圖片由作者提供。Long-term direct loans to businesses and households, primary market purchases of private debt securities with long-term maturities, as well as forbearance are measures prominent in many packages in Southeast Asia (Figure 9). Brunei’s package consists of a USD 320 billion stimulus, equivalent to 2.6% of GDP, to extend deferment on principal payments of loans to all sectors. More than 70% of Myanmar’s response is accounted for by a USD 71 million fund to provide soft loans garments and tourism sectors, as well as SMEs, at reduced interest rates.
在東南亞的許多一攬子計(jì)劃中，對(duì)企業(yè)和家庭的長期直接貸款，具有長期到期期限的私人債務(wù)證券在初級(jí)市場(chǎng)的購買以及抵債是很多措施(圖9)。 文萊的一攬子計(jì)劃包括3,200億美元的刺激計(jì)劃，相當(dāng)于GDP的2.6％，以延長對(duì)所有部門的貸款本金支付的延期。 緬甸提供的7100萬美元資金中有70％以上來自于緬甸，這些資金用于以較低的利率向服裝，旅游業(yè)以及中小企業(yè)提供軟貸款。
Figure 9. Southeast Asian countries boost long-term direct lending to businesses and households. Image by the author.圖9.東南亞國家增加了對(duì)企業(yè)和家庭的長期直接貸款。 圖片由作者提供。How does the Philippines fare against others?
菲律賓如何對(duì)付別人？
The Philippines has allotted USD 21 billion, equivalent to 5.9 of GDP, for COVID-19 policy response, about half of which, or 2.9% of GDP, consists of an emergency subsidy program for 18 million low-income families in the informal sector, wage subsidy for employees of small businesses, and assistance funds for local governments, among others (Figure 10). A substantial USD 5.2 billion additional liquidity, equal to 1.5% of GDP, also accounts for a sizeable portion of the country’s stimulus. Measures under providing liquidity support include reductions in the reserve requirement ratio for SMEs and large enterprises.
菲律賓已撥出210億美元，相當(dāng)于GDP的5.9，用于應(yīng)對(duì)COVID-19的政策，其中大約一半，即GDP的2.9％，是針對(duì)非正規(guī)部門1800萬低收入家庭的緊急補(bǔ)貼計(jì)劃，為小企業(yè)雇員提供工資補(bǔ)貼，為地方政府提供援助資金(圖10)。 大量的52億美元流動(dòng)資金，相當(dāng)于GDP的1.5％，也占該國刺激計(jì)劃的很大一部分。 提供流動(dòng)性支持的措施包括降低中小企業(yè)和大型企業(yè)的準(zhǔn)備金率。
Figure 10. The Philippines’ COVID-19 policy response mix. Image by the author.圖10.菲律賓的COVID-19政策回應(yīng)組合。 圖片由作者提供。Despite efforts to push government spending though, Philippine figures still lag peers in Southeast Asia (Figure 11). Indonesia, a good base to compare Philippines with, allotted USD 116 billion stimulus, equivalent to 10.4% of GDP. The Philippine response is behind even Vietnam’s USD 26.5 billion (10.1% of GDP), a country notable for containing the severity of outbreak. Budget for income support also lags most levels in developing Asia (Figure 12).
盡管努力推動(dòng)政府支出，但菲律賓的數(shù)字仍然落后于東南亞的其他國家(圖11)。 印尼是菲律賓的良好基礎(chǔ)，它分配了1,160億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃，相當(dāng)于GDP的10.4％。 菲律賓的React甚至落后于越南的265億美元(占GDP的10.1％)，該國以爆發(fā)的嚴(yán)重程度著稱。 收入支持預(yù)算也落后于亞洲發(fā)展中國家的大多數(shù)水平(圖12)。
Figure 11. Philippines still lags peers in Southeast Asia. Image by the author.圖11.菲律賓仍然落后于東南亞同行。 圖片由作者提供。 Figure 12. Budget for income support still below Asian levels. Image by the author.圖12.收入支持預(yù)算仍低于亞洲水平。 圖片由作者提供。Conclusion
結(jié)論
It has been challenging for policymakers in developing Asia to design right-sized policy responses to combat the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on incomes of households and business as well as on the financial system. While this exploratory data analysis suggests sizable efforts taken by governments to prevent further worsening of the economy, it says nothing about how such policy actions affect the number of COVID-19 cases. Nevertheless, the region’s policy responses, among other factors, will influence the recovery of developing Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic.
對(duì)于發(fā)展中亞洲的政策制定者來說，設(shè)計(jì)適當(dāng)規(guī)模的政策應(yīng)對(duì)方案以應(yīng)對(duì)COVID-19大流行對(duì)家庭和企業(yè)的收入以及對(duì)金融系統(tǒng)的負(fù)面影響一直是一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)。 盡管這項(xiàng)探索性的數(shù)據(jù)分析表明政府為防止經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步惡化已做出了巨大努力，但并沒有說明這種政策行動(dòng)如何影響COVID-19案件的數(shù)量。 盡管如此，該地區(qū)的政策React以及其他因素，將影響從COVID-19大流行中恢復(fù)的亞洲發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體。
Data and codes used in this article are available in this Github repository.
該Github存儲(chǔ)庫中提供了本文中使用的數(shù)據(jù)和代碼。
翻譯自: https://towardsdatascience.com/how-are-countries-in-developing-asia-responding-to-covid-19-330616c70a44
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