亞洲國家互聯網滲透率

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely hit various economies across the world, with global impact estimated between USD 6.1 trillion and USD 9.1 trillion, equivalent to a loss of 7.1% to 10.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP).[1] More than one-fifth of the global loss accrues to developing Asian economies, where the impact could cost as much as USD 2 trillion, equal to 8.5% of developing Asia’s GDP. To combat the adverse effects of outbreak-induced economic crises, authorities in the region have designed policy responses to support households, businesses and other sectors.

COVID-19大流行嚴重打擊了世界各地的各個經濟體，對全球的影響估計在6.1萬億美元至9.1萬億美元之間，相當于損失了全球國內生產總值(GDP)的7.1％至10.5％。 [1]全球損失的五分之一以上來自亞洲發展中經濟體，其影響可能造成高達2萬億美元的損失，相當于亞洲發展中GDP的8.5％。 為了應對由爆發引起的經濟危機的不利影響，該地區的主管部門已制定了應對政策，以支持家庭，企業和其他部門。

This article looks at the COVID-19 policy responses in developing Asia and is organized as follows:

本文著眼于亞洲發展中國家的COVID-19政策回應，其組織方式如下：

The data set

數據集

Size and distribution of policy response packages

政策響應包的大小和分布

Measures to provide direct support to income

為收入提供直接支持的措施

Other measures

其他措施

How does the Philippines fare against others?

菲律賓如何對付別人？

Conclusion

結論

The data set

數據集

Data used in this analysis come from the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) COVID-19 Policy Database, which collects information on economic measures taken and monetary amounts announced or estimated by authorities in developing Asia in response to COVID-19.[2] Policy actions are classified into five types: a) support the normal functioning of money markets; b) encourage private credit creation; c) provide direct long-term lending to nonfinancial sector; d) equity claims on the private sector; and e) provide direct support to income of households and businesses.

該分析中使用的數據來自亞洲開發銀行(ADB)的COVID-19政策數據庫，該數據庫收集有關亞洲發展中國家在應對COVID-19時所宣布或估計的經濟措施以及貨幣金額的信息。 [2]政策行動分為五類：a)支持貨幣市場的正常運作； b)鼓勵建立私人信貸； c)向非金融部門提供直接長期貸款； d)對私營部門的股權索賠； e)為家庭和企業的收入提供直接支持。

Size and distribution of policy response packages

政策響應包的大小和分布

Figure 1. East Asia dominates the region in terms of size of packages. 圖1.就包裹數量而言，東亞占主導地位。 Image by the author.圖片由作者提供。

East Asia has the biggest policy response package amounting to USD 2.8 trillion, more than thrice the combined amount of the rest of the region (Figure 1). Relative to GDP, East Asian countries are also above par against others with packages equivalent to 21.5% of GDP on average.

東亞最大的一攬子政策措施總額達2.8萬億美元，是該地區其他地區總和的三倍多(圖1)。 相對于國內生產總值，東亞國家也比其他國家高，平均相當于國內生產總值的21.5％。

The largest stimuli in the region come from countries in East and Southeast Asia, as well as India. China tops the list with USD 2.4 trillion, which is equivalent to almost 90% of the total response in East Asia (Figure 2). India’s package comes next at USD 363 billion, followed by South Korea with USD 235 billion. In terms of share in GDP, Hong Kong’s USD 192 billion-response is massive accounting for more than half of its GDP. Singapore’s response is equivalent to 25.4% of its GDP, while Malaysia 21.5%.

該地區最大的刺激來自東亞和東南亞國家以及印度。 中國以2.4萬億美元名列榜首，幾乎相當于東亞總響應的90％(圖2)。 其次是印度，總額為3630億美元，其次是韓國，為2350億美元。 就GDP的份額而言，香港的1,920億美元的援助占了GDP的一半以上。 新加坡的React相當于其國內生產總值的25.4％，而馬來西亞為21.5％。

Figure 2. China’s package most enormous; biggest packages come from East and Southeast Asia, India. Image by the author. 圖2. 中國的一攬子計劃 最大的包裹來自印度的東亞和東南亞。 圖片由作者提供。

There are some clear differences in the magnitude of packages as share in GDP across and even within sub regions (Figure 3). East Asia, for example, has an interquartile range of 14% to 17%, while Central and West Asia has 0.2% to 5%. Within sub regions, the variation is most pronounced for countries in Southeast Asia ranging from 0.04% (Lao PDR) to 25% (Singapore). The Pacific, on the other hand, tend to have less heterogeneity at below or equal to 10% of GDP, with Marshall Islands as an exception. Other outliers include Hong Kong and Taiwan for East Asia and Kazakhstan and Georgia for Central and West Asia.

一攬子計劃的規模在次區域甚至在次區域之內在GDP中所占的比例之間存在明顯差異(圖3)。 例如，東亞的四分位數范圍為14％至17％，而中亞和西亞的四分位數范圍為0.2％至5％。 在次區域內，東南亞國家的變化最為明顯，范圍從0.04％(老撾)至25％(新加坡)。 另一方面，太平洋地區的異質性趨向于低于或等于GDP的10％，馬紹爾群島除外。 其他異常值包括東亞的香港和臺灣以及中亞和西亞的哈薩克斯坦和喬治亞州。

Figure 3. There is sizable variation in the size of packages across and within sub regions. Image by the author.圖3.子區域內和子區域內的包裝尺寸存在很大差異。 圖片由作者提供。

Measures to provide direct support to income

為收入提供直接支持的措施

Figure 4. Policy responses are mainly dedicated to providing direct support to income. Image by the author.圖4.政策應對措施主要致力于為收入提供直接支持。 圖片由作者提供。

Providing direct support to income of households and businesses appears the most important objective of packages in the region (Figure 4). The whole block dedicated USD 1.9 trillion for measures such as in-kind and cash transfers to low-income households, insurance coverage for medical front liners, and wage support for low-wage workers. In per capita terms, Singapore provides the most generous support to income allotting more than USD 9,000 per person, followed by Hong Kong at more than USD 5,000 per person (Figure 5). In the Philippines, meanwhile, income support amounts to less than a hundred bucks per person.

為家庭和企業的收入提供直接支持似乎是該地區一攬子計劃的最重要目標(圖4)。 整個區塊共投入1.9萬億美元用于諸如向低收入家庭的實物和現金轉移，醫療前沿保險的覆蓋以及對低薪工人的工資支持等措施。 按人均計算，新加坡為人均收入超過9,000美元的人提供了最慷慨的支持，其次是香港，人均收入超過5,000美元的人(圖5)。 同時，在菲律賓，人均收入支持不到一百美元。

Figure 5. Singapore and Hong Kong are the most generous to provide income support. Image by the author.圖5.新加坡和香港是提供收入支持的最慷慨的。 圖片由作者提供。

Other measures

其他措施

In addition to providing income support, authorities also put importance on ensuring normal functioning of money markets, encouraging private credit creation, and offering direct long-term lending to households and businesses (Figure 6). Measures to purchase equities in the private sector, on the other hand, play less role in many packages in the region.

除提供收入支持外，當局還重視確保貨幣市場的正常運作，鼓勵私人信貸的建立以及向家庭和企業提供直接長期貸款(圖6)。 另一方面，在私營部門購買股票的措施在該地區的許多一攬子計劃中所起的作用較小。

Figure 6. Measures adopted by authorities vary according to its effect on financial systems, incomes and debt. Image by the author.圖6.當局采取的措施因其對金融體系，收入和債務的影響而異。 圖片由作者提供。

All economies in East Asia have dedicated significant budget for measures that provide liquidity support (Figure 7). Hong Kong is notable with almost 70% of its total package accounted for by increasing banking sector’s liquidity, encouraging banks to deploy more flexible liquidity buffers, and easing interbank funding conditions. About one-fifth of China’s policy response is intended to expand lending facilities to aid manufacturers of medical supplies and daily necessities, micro-, small- and medium-sized firms, and workers in the agricultural sector.

東亞所有經濟體都有大量預算用于提供流動性支持的措施(圖7)。 引人注目的是，香港通過提高銀行部門的流動性，鼓勵銀行部署更靈活的流動性緩沖，以及減輕銀行間融資條件而占其總投資的70％。 中國約有五分之一的政策React旨在擴大貸款設施，以幫助醫療用品和日用品的制造商，微型，中小型企業以及農業部門的工人。

Figure 7. East Asian economies provide liquidity support. Image by the author.圖7.東亞經濟體提供流動性支持。 圖片由作者提供。

In South Asia, secondary market purchases of securities, interest rate reductions, and loan guarantees account for a sizeable proportion of total packages (Figure 8). The whole package of Nepal, for example, consists of a USD 2 billion refinancing fund to provide subsidized credit for banks willing to lend at a concessional rate to priority sectors including small and medium enterprises (SME). In Sri Lanka, about two-fifths of the package is intended to implement new credit schemes to support lending to construction and other business segments severely hit by the pandemic.

在南亞，二級市場上購買的證券，利率降低和貸款擔保占一攬子交易總額的很大一部分(圖8)。 例如，尼泊爾的一攬子計劃包括一個20億美元的再融資基金，用于向愿意以優惠利率向包括中小企業在內的優先部門提供貸款的銀行提供補貼信貸。 在斯里蘭卡，一攬子計劃中約有五分之二旨在實施新的信貸計劃，以支持對受到大流行嚴重打擊的建筑和其他業務部門的貸款。

Figure 8. Authorities in South Asia encourage private credit creation. Image by the author.圖8.南亞當局鼓勵建立私人信貸。 圖片由作者提供。

Long-term direct loans to businesses and households, primary market purchases of private debt securities with long-term maturities, as well as forbearance are measures prominent in many packages in Southeast Asia (Figure 9). Brunei’s package consists of a USD 320 billion stimulus, equivalent to 2.6% of GDP, to extend deferment on principal payments of loans to all sectors. More than 70% of Myanmar’s response is accounted for by a USD 71 million fund to provide soft loans garments and tourism sectors, as well as SMEs, at reduced interest rates.

在東南亞的許多一攬子計劃中，對企業和家庭的長期直接貸款，具有長期到期期限的私人債務證券在初級市場的購買以及抵債是很多措施(圖9)。 文萊的一攬子計劃包括3,200億美元的刺激計劃，相當于GDP的2.6％，以延長對所有部門的貸款本金支付的延期。 緬甸提供的7100萬美元資金中有70％以上來自于緬甸，這些資金用于以較低的利率向服裝，旅游業以及中小企業提供軟貸款。

Figure 9. Southeast Asian countries boost long-term direct lending to businesses and households. Image by the author.圖9.東南亞國家增加了對企業和家庭的長期直接貸款。 圖片由作者提供。

How does the Philippines fare against others?

菲律賓如何對付別人？

The Philippines has allotted USD 21 billion, equivalent to 5.9 of GDP, for COVID-19 policy response, about half of which, or 2.9% of GDP, consists of an emergency subsidy program for 18 million low-income families in the informal sector, wage subsidy for employees of small businesses, and assistance funds for local governments, among others (Figure 10). A substantial USD 5.2 billion additional liquidity, equal to 1.5% of GDP, also accounts for a sizeable portion of the country’s stimulus. Measures under providing liquidity support include reductions in the reserve requirement ratio for SMEs and large enterprises.

菲律賓已撥出210億美元，相當于GDP的5.9，用于應對COVID-19的政策，其中大約一半，即GDP的2.9％，是針對非正規部門1800萬低收入家庭的緊急補貼計劃，為小企業雇員提供工資補貼，為地方政府提供援助資金(圖10)。 大量的52億美元流動資金，相當于GDP的1.5％，也占該國刺激計劃的很大一部分。 提供流動性支持的措施包括降低中小企業和大型企業的準備金率。

Figure 10. The Philippines’ COVID-19 policy response mix. Image by the author.圖10.菲律賓的COVID-19政策回應組合。 圖片由作者提供。

Despite efforts to push government spending though, Philippine figures still lag peers in Southeast Asia (Figure 11). Indonesia, a good base to compare Philippines with, allotted USD 116 billion stimulus, equivalent to 10.4% of GDP. The Philippine response is behind even Vietnam’s USD 26.5 billion (10.1% of GDP), a country notable for containing the severity of outbreak. Budget for income support also lags most levels in developing Asia (Figure 12).

盡管努力推動政府支出，但菲律賓的數字仍然落后于東南亞的其他國家(圖11)。 印尼是菲律賓的良好基礎，它分配了1,160億美元的經濟刺激計劃，相當于GDP的10.4％。 菲律賓的React甚至落后于越南的265億美元(占GDP的10.1％)，該國以爆發的嚴重程度著稱。 收入支持預算也落后于亞洲發展中國家的大多數水平(圖12)。

Figure 11. Philippines still lags peers in Southeast Asia. Image by the author.圖11.菲律賓仍然落后于東南亞同行。 圖片由作者提供。 Figure 12. Budget for income support still below Asian levels. Image by the author.圖12.收入支持預算仍低于亞洲水平。 圖片由作者提供。

Conclusion

結論

It has been challenging for policymakers in developing Asia to design right-sized policy responses to combat the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on incomes of households and business as well as on the financial system. While this exploratory data analysis suggests sizable efforts taken by governments to prevent further worsening of the economy, it says nothing about how such policy actions affect the number of COVID-19 cases. Nevertheless, the region’s policy responses, among other factors, will influence the recovery of developing Asian economies from the COVID-19 pandemic.

對于發展中亞洲的政策制定者來說，設計適當規模的政策應對方案以應對COVID-19大流行對家庭和企業的收入以及對金融系統的負面影響一直是一項挑戰。 盡管這項探索性的數據分析表明政府為防止經濟進一步惡化已做出了巨大努力，但并沒有說明這種政策行動如何影響COVID-19案件的數量。 盡管如此，該地區的政策React以及其他因素，將影響從COVID-19大流行中恢復的亞洲發展中經濟體。

Data and codes used in this article are available in this Github repository.

該Github存儲庫中提供了本文中使用的數據和代碼。

翻譯自: https://towardsdatascience.com/how-are-countries-in-developing-asia-responding-to-covid-19-330616c70a44

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