更便捷的画决策分支图的工具_做出更好决策的3个要素
更便捷的畫(huà)決策分支圖的工具
Have you ever wondered:
您是否曾經(jīng)想過(guò)：
How did Google dominate 92.1% of the search engine market share?
Google如何占領(lǐng)搜索引擎92.1％的市場(chǎng)份額？
How did Facebook achieve 74.1% of social media market share?
Facebook如何取得社交媒體市場(chǎng)份額的74.1％ ？
How did Microsoft win over 77.7% of the Desktop OS market share?
Microsoft如何贏得超過(guò)77.7％的桌面操作系統(tǒng)市場(chǎng)份額？
Aside from great vision, they all decided on how they do things, leading them to their triumph. Google decided to focus its search engine to provide better user experience, instead of monetization. Learning from the early adopters, Facebook decided to plan its growth, time its entry, and manage its public relation wisely. Microsoft decided to build Windows with compatibility in mind, reducing future issues so they can innovate even more.
除了有遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)，他們都決定如何做事，帶領(lǐng)他們走向勝利。 Google決定將重點(diǎn)放在搜索引擎上，以提供更好的用戶體驗(yàn)，而不是通過(guò)獲利 。 向早期采用者學(xué)習(xí)，Facebook決定計(jì)劃其發(fā)展，安排其進(jìn)入時(shí)間并明智地管理其公共關(guān)系 。 微軟決定在構(gòu)建Windows時(shí)考慮到兼容性 ，以減少將來(lái)出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題，以便他們可以進(jìn)行更多創(chuàng)新。
They all made great decisions, bet on it — and won.
他們都做出了偉大的決定，下了賭注，并且贏了。
As one who’s in the data science field, being data-driven is a must. Deciding our actions based on data is a normal thing to do. It’s in the job description after all. Yet, my mentor once said, “be more than a data scientist”. I figured out what it means later on. Not all problems can be solved using data. Maybe it can, but is it the best approach?
作為數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)領(lǐng)域的一員，必須以數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)。 根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)確定我們的行動(dòng)是正常的事情。 畢竟它在職位描述中。 但是，我的導(dǎo)師曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)，“不僅僅是一名數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)家”。 后來(lái)我弄清楚了這是什么意思。 使用數(shù)據(jù)并不能解決所有問(wèn)題。 也許可以，但這是最好的方法嗎？
Other than data science and analytics, 2 more essentials could help us form better decisions. Finding the balance of all three is important since our decisions defines our future. Whether we want to solve personal matters, build a product, or start a business — we have to decide our next step.
除了數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)和分析之外，還有2項(xiàng)基本要素可以幫助我們制定更好的決策。 找到三者之間的平衡很重要，因?yàn)槲覀兊臎Q定決定了我們的未來(lái)。 無(wú)論是要解決個(gè)人事務(wù)，生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品還是開(kāi)展業(yè)務(wù)，我們都必須決定下一步。
Take a look at this graph. Imagine you have built a startup. These bars represent your monthly product sales.
看一下這個(gè)圖。 假設(shè)您已經(jīng)建立了一家初創(chuàng)公司。 這些條形代表您的每月產(chǎn)品銷售量。
Keep this graph in mind as you read through.
閱讀時(shí)請(qǐng)牢記此圖。
分析工具 (Analytics)
According to Cambridge, analytics is a process in which a computer examines information using mathematical methods in order to find useful patterns.
根據(jù)Cambridge的說(shuō)法，分析是計(jì)算機(jī)使用數(shù)學(xué)方法檢查信息以找到有用的模式的過(guò)程。
Data is the new oil. Analytics help us achieve better business performance through insights from data. The demand for analytics is growing, giving rise to data scientists that became the sexiest job of the 21st century. Nowadays, most organizations have applied descriptive, prescriptive, and predictive analytics to unlock their full potentials.
數(shù)據(jù)是新的石油。 通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)洞察，分析可幫助我們提高業(yè)務(wù)績(jī)效。 對(duì)分析的需求不斷增長(zhǎng)，這催生了成為21世紀(jì)最性感的工作的數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)家 。 如今，大多數(shù)組織已應(yīng)用描述性，描述性和預(yù)測(cè)性分析來(lái)釋放其全部潛力。
I work in analytics myself. Most of my output is used to decide strategic moves and discover answers to business problems. Furthermore, it could transform new opportunities into realities. Without data, it’s like wandering with no direction.
我自己從事分析工作。 我的大部分輸出都用于決定戰(zhàn)略舉措和發(fā)現(xiàn)業(yè)務(wù)問(wèn)題的答案。 此外，它可以將新機(jī)會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)化為現(xiàn)實(shí)。 沒(méi)有數(shù)據(jù)，就像無(wú)方向徘徊。
Google even got a Chief Decision Scientist; ensuring the use of data and analytics to fuel the decisions on their products — or they called it decision intelligence. They invest in it in exchange for better business decisions.
谷歌甚至有首席決策科學(xué)家 ; 確保使用數(shù)據(jù)和分析來(lái)推動(dòng)其產(chǎn)品上的決策，或者他們稱之為決策智能 。 他們?cè)谄渲型顿Y以換取更好的業(yè)務(wù)決策。
The beauty data is — it’s based on fact. We can only find the truth with data.
美容數(shù)據(jù)是-它基于事實(shí)。 我們只能用數(shù)據(jù)找到真相。
- Is your new business working well? 您的新業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)作良好嗎？
- Can we reduce the cost? 我們可以降低成本嗎？
- Which strategy is more efficient to put in place? 哪種策略更有效？
- How is the future trend? 未來(lái)趨勢(shì)如何？
Analytics can answer all these questions.
Analytics(分析)可以回答所有這些問(wèn)題。
Say you have used quantitative data to optimize processes and fuel your business strategy. Your startup is growing at a constant rate until the 8th month. But, is that it? Don’t you want to raise the ceiling and go beyond? What else can you do?
假設(shè)您已使用定量數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)優(yōu)化流程并推動(dòng)您的業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略。 直到第8個(gè)月，您的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司都將以恒定的速度增長(zhǎng)。 但是，是嗎？ 您是否不想提高天花板并超越？ 你還能做什么？
直覺(jué) (Intuition)
According to Cambridge, intuition is an ability to understand or know something immediately based on your feelings rather than facts.
劍橋大學(xué)認(rèn)為 ，直覺(jué)是一種根據(jù)您的感受而不是事實(shí)立即理解或了解某些東西的能力。
How many times did you believe in your hunch and succeed? Probably a few times. Intuition just pops up in your mind before you know it. When done right, that instant idea may lead you to create major impacts.
您相信自己多少次成功了？ 大概幾次。 直覺(jué)就突然出現(xiàn)在您的腦海中。 如果做得對(duì)，那立即的想法可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致您產(chǎn)生重大影響 。
People dreamt of going to space but very few are serious to think of how to get there. Elon Musk decided to believe his gut along with his vision. He then built an innovation, something that hasn’t existed yet. Now, he has proved that “SpaceX can do what it says it wants to do”.
人們夢(mèng)想著要去太空，但是很少有人認(rèn)真思考如何到達(dá)太空。 伊隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)決定相信自己的直覺(jué)和他的遠(yuǎn)見(jiàn)。 然后，他進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)創(chuàng)新，這還不存在。 現(xiàn)在，他證明了“ SpaceX可以做到其想做的事情 ”。
However, an intuition like his is one-of-a-kind. What about the rest of us? We can’t quantify the value of someone’s intuition but the good news is: every person can strengthen his/her intuition by using it over time.
但是，像他這樣的直覺(jué)是獨(dú)一無(wú)二的。 那我們其余的人呢？ 我們無(wú)法量化某人的直覺(jué)的價(jià)值，但好消息是：每個(gè)人都可以通過(guò)逐漸使用它來(lái)增強(qiáng)自己的直覺(jué)。
Still, it’s best practice to believe intuition when it’s validated by logic, reasoning, and data. I did trust my blind intuition at work once in a while and most of the time, it didn’t work well. Ideas build by feelings alone will more likely to fail. Relying on intuition alone can’t get you very far. After all, every journey is a marathon, not a sprint.
不過(guò)，最好的做法是在通過(guò)邏輯，推理和數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證直覺(jué)時(shí)相信直覺(jué)。 我確實(shí)偶爾會(huì)相信我的盲目直覺(jué)，在大多數(shù)情況下，這種感覺(jué)并不奏效。 僅憑感覺(jué)建立的想法更有可能失敗。 僅僅依靠直覺(jué)不會(huì)使您走得太遠(yuǎn)。 畢竟，每一次旅程都是一場(chǎng)馬拉松，而不是短跑。
In the 9th month, you believe your intuition and implement a weird strategy. Your sales grew 3 times the next month. You’re happy. It’s unexpected. Although the real why remains a question.
在第9個(gè)月中，您相信自己的直覺(jué)并執(zhí)行怪異的策略。 您的銷售在下個(gè)月增長(zhǎng)了3倍。 你很高興。 真是出乎意料 雖然真正的原因仍然是一個(gè)問(wèn)題。
研究 (Research)
According to Cambridge, research is a detailed study of a subject, especially in order to discover (new) information or reach a (new) understanding.
劍橋大學(xué)認(rèn)為 ，研究是對(duì)一個(gè)主題的詳細(xì)研究，特別是為了發(fā)現(xiàn)(新)信息或達(dá)成(新)理解。
Analytics are quantitative. Intuition is more or less a mystery. Research fills in the gap with its qualitative study. With it, we can gain a deeper understanding beyond feelings and numbers.
分析是定量的。 直覺(jué)或多或少是個(gè)謎。 研究填補(bǔ)了其定性研究的空白。 有了它，我們不僅可以獲得感覺(jué)和數(shù)字，還可以獲得更深刻的理解。
Apple took 1st place while Samsung took 6th place in the Best Global Brands 2019 by Interbrand. As a mobile phone vendor, they’re leading the industry with 30.9% and 24.8% market share worldwide. But that aside, let’s take a look at China’s Apple.
在Interbrand的2019年度最佳全球品牌中，蘋(píng)果名列第一，三星名列第六。 作為手機(jī)供應(yīng)商，他們以30.9％和24.8％的全球市場(chǎng)份額引領(lǐng)行業(yè)。 除此之外，讓我們看看中國(guó)的蘋(píng)果 。
Unlike those top 2 who innovate as well as set the bar for its users, Xiaomi approaches it the other way around. Lei Jun built an ecosystem where “fans” co-design and evangelize their products. Lei diligently took into account all the researches together with feedbacks, then — took the 1st place of market share in India, blowing Samsung away.
與那些創(chuàng)新并為用戶設(shè)定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的前2名小米不同，小米采用了相反的方法。 雷軍建立了一個(gè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)， “粉絲”可以共同設(shè)計(jì)和宣傳他們的產(chǎn)品 。 Lei勤奮地考慮了所有研究和反饋，然后–占據(jù)了印度市場(chǎng)份額的第一位 ，將三星趕走了。
We can use logic on numbers but empathy on feedbacks. Research can answer problems by understanding people. It goes well with one habit from 7 Habits of Highly Effective People — “seek first to understand, then to be understood”.
我們可以對(duì)數(shù)字使用邏輯，而對(duì)反饋使用同理心。 研究可以通過(guò)了解人們來(lái)回答問(wèn)題。 它與7個(gè)高效人的習(xí)慣中的一個(gè)習(xí)慣相得益彰 -“首先尋求理解，然后理解”。
I keep this habit in mind when faced with problems that include several people. Understanding their point of view — think — then offer a solution. The result: we decided on a solution faster, without needless arguments. If you’re a data science enthusiast, consider reading more about other habits here.
當(dāng)遇到包括幾個(gè)人的問(wèn)題時(shí)，我謹(jǐn)記這個(gè)習(xí)慣。 了解他們的觀點(diǎn)(思考)，然后提供解決方案。 結(jié)果：我們更快地決定了解決方案，而沒(méi)有多余的爭(zhēng)論。 如果您是數(shù)據(jù)科學(xué)愛(ài)好者，請(qǐng)考慮在此處閱讀有關(guān)其他習(xí)慣的更多信息。
No matter how good your analytics & intuitions, people are always involved. Listen to their voice.
無(wú)論您的分析和直覺(jué)多么出色， 總會(huì)涉及到人們 。 聽(tīng)他們的聲音。
Be aware though, too much research without good sense and data may lead to a false decision. One common mistake is poor research sampling: listening too much on the minority while overlooking the majority.
但是請(qǐng)注意，太多的研究缺乏良好的理智和數(shù)據(jù)，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致錯(cuò)誤的決定。 一個(gè)普遍的錯(cuò)誤是研究抽樣不力：在聽(tīng)少數(shù)派意見(jiàn)的同時(shí)卻忽略了大多數(shù)意見(jiàn)。
At the start of the 10th month, you connect and chat with your customers. Not two but many. Now that you understand the reason behind your sudden growth — you strike a new record with ease in the following month.
在第10個(gè)月初，您可以與客戶建立聯(lián)系并聊天。 不是兩個(gè)，而是很多。 現(xiàn)在，您了解了突然增長(zhǎng)的原因-您將在下個(gè)月輕松創(chuàng)下新紀(jì)錄。
Congratulations! ?
恭喜你！ ?
尋找平衡 (Finding the Balance)
We make decisions every day. Some good, some bad. Take the bad ones as our learning curve and strive for better decisions every day. We are who we decide to be.
我們每天都會(huì)做出決定。 有些好，有些壞。 將壞問(wèn)題作為我們的學(xué)習(xí)曲線，每天努力做出更好的決定。 我們是我們決定成為的人。
“I am not a product of my circumstances, I am a product of my decisions.” — Stephen R. Covey
“我不是我所處環(huán)境的產(chǎn)物，而是我所做出決定的產(chǎn)物?！?—斯蒂芬·R·科維
To sum it up, these three essentials interconnect and empower each other:
綜上所述，這三個(gè)要點(diǎn)相互聯(lián)系并相互賦能：
1 Analytics will support and validate your intuition & research. It helps you to better sustain your venture and reach its greatest potential. Even so, clinging too much on it will get you nowhere.
1 Analytics(分析)將支持和驗(yàn)證您的直覺(jué)和研究。 它可以幫助您更好地維持自己的事業(yè)并發(fā)揮最大的潛力。 即使這樣，過(guò)分堅(jiān)持下去也無(wú)濟(jì)于事。
2 Intuition can yield massive impact and act as a guide to extract valuable insights from your analytics & research. Believe in your hunches while backing it up with your experience. Wrong hunches may lead to failure.
2直覺(jué)可以產(chǎn)生巨大的影響，并可以作為指導(dǎo)，從您的分析和研究中提取有價(jià)值的見(jiàn)解。 相信自己的預(yù)感，同時(shí)根據(jù)自己的經(jīng)驗(yàn)進(jìn)行備份。 錯(cuò)誤的預(yù)感可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致失敗。
3 Research enriches intuition & analytics by understanding the problem. Using qualitative insights, you can replicate your decision in more ways than one. Be sure to hear from all kinds of people though.
3研究通過(guò)了解問(wèn)題來(lái)豐富直覺(jué)和分析。 利用定性見(jiàn)解，您可以通過(guò)多種方式復(fù)制決策。 但是一定要聽(tīng)取各種各樣的人的意見(jiàn)。
Remember: big decision carries a big risk. Balance all these 3 essentials to mitigate it and find your next best action.
請(qǐng)記住：重大決策會(huì)帶來(lái)巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 平衡所有這三個(gè)要素，以減輕壓力并找到下一個(gè)最佳動(dòng)作。
This post was inspired by “#FirstPrinciples Ep06 with Ravi Mehta”. Thank you for sharing! 🙌
這篇文章的靈感來(lái)自“ Ravi Mehta的 #FirstPrinciples Ep06 ”。 感謝你的分享！ 🙌
All market share data are the last 1 year from July 2020, sourced from Statcounter Global Stats.
所有市場(chǎng)份額數(shù)據(jù)均來(lái)自 Statcounter Global Stats ，是2020年7月以來(lái)的最近1年 。
翻譯自: https://towardsdatascience.com/3-essentials-to-make-better-decisions-9b2cdc60365e
更便捷的畫(huà)決策分支圖的工具
總結(jié)
以上是生活随笔為你收集整理的更便捷的画决策分支图的工具_做出更好决策的3个要素的全部?jī)?nèi)容，希望文章能夠幫你解決所遇到的問(wèn)題。
- 上一篇： 梦到厕所的虫子爬自己身上是什么梦
- 下一篇： 矩阵线性相关则矩阵行列式_搜索线性时间中