%%發展系數a 灰色作用量b
syms a b;

%%原始數列 E列
A1 = xlsread(‘C:\Users\0223\Documents\MATLAB\勞動人口 .xlsx’,‘C1:C11’);
A = A1’;
A = A.*0.01;
n = length(A);

%%進行一次累加
B(1) = A(1);
for i = 2 : n
B(i) = B(i-1) + A(i);
end

%%均值生成
for i = 2 : n
Z(i) = (B(i) + B(i-1))*0.5;
end
Z(1) = [];

%%構造Y B矩陣
Y = A; Y(1) = []; Y = Y’;
B = [-Z;ones(1,n-1)];

%%計算a b參數值
q = sum(Z);
w = sum(A) - A(1);
e = 0;
for i = 2 : n
e = e + Z(i-1)*A(i);
end
r = 0;
for i = 2 : n
r = r + Z(i-1)*Z(i-1);
end

a = ( (qw) - (n-1)e ) / ( (n-1)r - (qq) );
b = ( (wr) - (qe) ) / ( (n-1)r - (qq) );

%%預測近4年的數據
yuce = [];
yuce(1) = A(1);
for i = 2 : (n + 4)
yuce(i) = ((A(1) - b/a))/exp(a*(i-1)) + b/a;
end

%%還原數據
huanyuan = [];
huanyuan(1) = A(1);
for i = 2 : (n+4)
huanyuan(i) = yuce(i) - yuce(i-1);
end

%%模型檢驗
canchazhi = abs(0.784 - 0.789691929) / 0.784

總結

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